European Structured Financial Outlook 2022


London, January 19, 2022(BUSINESS WIRE)– DBRS Morningstar has published its annual forecast for European Structured Finance. Looking ahead to 2022, as the volatility caused by the pandemic continues to fade, there are a number of issues we expect the European securitization market to face:

(1) Shift towards sustainable capital markets

(2) geopolitical risks

  • Brexit – a forgotten story – continues to create trade tensions for the UK with its immediate neighbours

  • Global trade tensions, immigrant crises, trade wars, and supply chain issues are a few of the issues that can escalate into widespread market uncertainty.

(3) tighten monetary policy

  • To rein in inflation, or persistently transient or transitory inflation – regardless of naming convention – if the central bank’s purchasing programs are low, we would expect the balance of issued versus held issues to tilt slightly towards the former

  • In 2022, DBRS Morningstar expects total European securitization issuances from €200 billion to €210 billion, of which we expect €110 billion to €115 billion to be market transactions. These forecasts are continually dependent on progress on virus containment measures and the countermeasures used to keep inflation in check.

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